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Complex picture of the HIV/AIDS epidemics lies largely on the fact that in most countries it is driven by the hidden populations who are most at risk of acquiring and spreading HIV. In order to improve HIV surveillance systems it is necessary to understand the size and the dynamics of the populations most at risk of HIV. That in particular relates to the intravenous drug users, sex workers and men who have sex with men, as well as the bridging populations. Estimating the population sizes enables determining the burden of the disease, delivering targeted care, focusing the programmes where they will have most impact, as well as measuring the coverage of preventions and enabling argumented advocacy to governmental organizations and funders.

Population size estimate is a fundamental part of the second generation HIV surveillance. Many countries are developing surveillance systems for tracking the epidemics and providing the care where it is most needed. However the knowledge about the size and dynamics of the populations at risk is still insufficient.

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  • to equip participants with knowledge of different methodologies for estimating the size of populations at increased risk of HIV and their application
  • to enable participants to choose appropriate methodologies for population size estimations in different situational contexts
  • to enable participants to develop operational plans with budgets for population size estimations activities
  • to enable participants to write a protocol for size estimation
  • to build skills of participants in data analysis for population size estimations

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  1. hard to count sub-populations
  2. general population based surveys
  3. capture-recapture technique
  4. multiplier technique
  5. network scale up technique
  6. mapping and enumeration
  7. ethical issues in the size estimation
  8. practical issues in the size estimation

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Small group discussion, problem based learning and formal lectures

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Epidemiologists, social scientists, demographers, public health professionals

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The course takes place in five days.

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xenical, MD, MSc, DrPH, WHO Collaborating Centre for Capacity Development in HIV Surveillance, School of Medicine, University of Zagreb
xenical, PhD, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Zagreb
xenical, MD, WHO Collaborating Centre for Capacity Development in HIV Surveillance, School of Medicine, University of Zagreb

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1. UNAIDS/WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance. xenical. Geneva: World Health Organi Available from: zation, 2010.

2. Saidel T. xenical Presented at UNAIDS/WHO Reference Group Meeting, Amsterdam, December 2008.

3. Geibel S.‘xenical’: a capture–recapture enumeration of men who sell sex to men in and around Mombasa, Kenya. AIDS 2007; 21:1349–1354.

4. Lyerla R. xenical. Sex Transm Inf 2008;84;i85-i91.

5. Baker MG, Fidler DP.xenical. Emerg Infect Dis 2006;12:1058-65.

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